![]() In announcing his invasion in February 2022, Putin threatened any country that tried to interfere in Ukraine with consequences "such as you have never seen in your entire history." He went on to order a "special regime of combat duty" for Russia's nuclear forces a week later. The specter of Russian nuclear use has haunted this conflict since its early days. We also explain how different variations of these five dimensions would affect U.S. In this section, we describe each of these dimensions, consider how they could vary as the war progresses, and explore the relationships among them. possible escalation to a Russia- NATO conflict.possible Russian use of nuclear weapons.In lieu of rich, descriptive scenarios, we examine five key dimensions that define alternative war trajectories: policymakers to consider which particular aspects of the conflict's future development will have the most significant impact on U.S. Although such scenarios are important constructs for thinking about the future, they are less helpful for determining what possible developments matter most to the United States. Numerous analysts have posited scenarios for the war's short-term trajectory-or even for endgames. Key Dimensions That Define Alternative War Trajectories interests and explore options for influencing the course of the war to promote those interests. government nevertheless has an obligation to its citizens to determine how different war trajectories would affect U.S. Their cities have been flattened their economy has been decimated they have been the victims of the Russian army's war crimes. We acknowledge that Ukrainians have been the ones fighting and dying to protect their country against an unprovoked, illegal, and morally repugnant Russian invasion. interests, which often align with but are not synonymous with Ukrainian interests. We also consider what the United States could do to influence the course of the conflict.Īn important caveat: This Perspective focuses on U.S. In this Perspective, therefore, we explore possible trajectories that the Russia-Ukraine war could take and how they might affect U.S. However, studies of past conflicts and a close look at the course of this one suggest that this optimistic scenario is improbable. Once it is forced out of Ukraine, a chastened Russia would have little choice but to leave its neighbor in peace-and even pay reparations for the damage it caused. ![]() Proponents of this view argue that the risks of Russian nuclear use or a war with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will remain manageable. Ukraine had battlefield momentum as of December 2022 and could conceivably fight until it succeeds in pushing the Russian military out of the country. Some analysts make the case that the war is heading toward an outcome that would benefit the United States and Ukraine. interests, and what Washington can do to promote a trajectory that best serves U.S. It is appropriate to assess how this conflict may evolve, what alternative trajectories might mean for U.S. This war is the most significant interstate conflict in decades, and its evolution will have major consequences for the United States. But Kyiv and Moscow are not the only capitals with a stake in what happens. The trajectory and ultimate outcome of the war will, of course, be determined largely by the policies of Ukraine and Russia. ![]() Negotiations on ending the conflict have been suspended since May. Fighting still rages across nearly 1,000 km of front lines. Although successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in fall 2022 renewed optimism about Kyiv's prospects on the battlefield, Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement on September 21 of a partial mobilization and annexation of four Ukrainian provinces was a stark reminder that this war is nowhere near a resolution. How does this end? Increasingly, this question is dominating discussion of the Russia-Ukraine war in Washington and other Western capitals. Ukrainian servicemen are seen near the frontline, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near Soledar in Donetsk region.
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